Hear from both managers as Robbie Earle and Kyle Martino break down West Ham’s crucial last-gasp victory over Chelsea. #NBCSports #PremierLeague #WestHamUnited #Chelsea
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Instant reactions after West Ham beat Chelsea | Premier League | NBC Sports
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In today’s video we’ll be predicting the Premier League restart, looking at relegation, top four and Golden boot.
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First we’ll be using the Bundesliga as an example of how games could go. home advantage in the opening four games has appeared to have disappeared and the advantage is with the away team – but note, this is a small sample size. In the opening 36 games of the Bundesliga, we have seen: eight home wins, 18 away wins and 10 draws. Breaking that down to percentages, home teams are winning 22% of their games, away teams winning 50% and around 28% of games ending in draws. If we take a look at the games in the Bundesliga before the break, of the 224 games: 43% ended in home wins, 35% ended in away wins and around 22% of games ended in draws.
Looking at the tactical side of things, crossing and counter pressing has been key for the success of the top two sides since the restart – Bayern Munich & Hertha Berlin. Of the 24 goals the two sides have scored, 15 have come from crosses from open play and from corners. Defensively, Bayern and Hertha have conceded two goals each, both having an effective counter press which has made them defensively sound. Bayern have also been a threat in the opposition final third when they have lost the ball, scoring four goals from recovering the ball high and attacking with Kimmich’s chip vs. Borussia Dortmund the highlight.
Ok, let’s jump into predicting the relegation in the Premier League. I think Brighton will be fine because they have been unlucky. Brighton have drawn more Premier League games than any other side in the bottom half of the table. Watford will be fine with Nigel Pearson at the helm. Since the former Leicester City manager took charge, Watford have picked up 19 in 14 games including wins against Man Utd and Liverpool.
The data backs this up suggesting out of the remaining four sides Bournemouth, Villa and Norwich are destined for the drop in terms of expected Points. Looking into the performances of Villa and Norwich before the break, I have to agree with the data. Although West Ham could be the surprise for many to go down, West Ham though are the classic “they are too good to go down” side and have been woeful at the back having the 2nd worst xG against in the league, consistently conceding a lot of quality chances. Looking at the fixtures, both teams have to play Wolves, Tottenham and Man Utd. West Ham have Chelsea whilst Bournemouth have Leicester and Manchester City. For me, this will be decided in the first three games back and then the last two games of the season.
Moving onto the exciting part, top four or as we call it Champions League places. This will be very tight to call between Manchester United, Chelsea and Leicester City. If we’re going off before the break I see Chelsea sneaking into third, Leicester City dropping out of the top four and Manchester United moving in.
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Welcome back to the Premier League Pub Quiz! We have five rounds coming up…
Round 1 – Multiple choice – 5 points
Round 2 – Higher or lower – 5 points
Round 3 – Missing name round – 5 points
Round 4 – Say what you saw – 5 points
Round 5 Miscellaneous round – 14 points
Total 34 points
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